Battle in the Big House Preview

This game is kind of a Big Deal (assuming it goes down as planned in the Big House tomorrow, I would contend the biggest game for the state since the Titans’ first game). On account of that, I’m moving the elsewhere portion to the top:

Elsewhere

Michigan will be participating in the Lace Up For Michigan campaign. All sorts of game day materials. Michigan Director of Athletic Dave Brandon talks about the addition of lacrosse to the spring game event. John Paul on the WTKA morning show.

Game mini-breakdown from The Wolverine. Another beginner-ish guide. MGoBlog preview.

Michigan preview. Ohio State preview.

Ohio State

A nut with a body. And a lacrosse stick.

2:30 EST April 14, 2012
Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.
Big Ten Network and BTN2Go. Live Stats. Live audio.

2012
5-6 (2-1 ECAC). #21 Laxpower, #16Tempo-free.

Tempo-Free Profile

The raw numbers are good here, the adjusted numbers (including schedule strength, etc.) are a little out of date as listed below. They’re only a game or two behind, so nothing should be too radically out of whack.

Ohio State is not a particularly good offense, despite having some serious talent (more on that in a moment). They’re solidly in the bottom third – No. 43 adjusted for schedule – in the country. However, they more than make up for that with an elite defense. The Buckeyes’ D is the fifth-most efficient in all the land.

In the possession game, it’s a tale of two extremes. It is ugly on faceoffs for OSU. They’re the No. 42 team in the country in that metric. However, they’re a decent riding team – No. 20 nationally – and an elite clearing team, second best in all the land.

Ohio State also plays a very slow brand of lacrosse (something you might not expect from a team that isn’t all that efficient on offense). They stalled the hell out of Denver – and it paid off with a win – and have really only played fast games when running the score up on Bellarmine and Mercer (though the Bears’ eight goals against Ohio State was their best output against a non-Wagner opponent this season).

Offense

The Ohio State offense starts – and often ends – with junior attackman Logan Schuss. The Canadian has a third of the Buckeyes’ goals, and although he’s much more a scorer than a distributor, more than a quarter of their total points with 43. He is the Dangerman for the Buckeyes.

Behind Schuss, the next three guys combined come a point short of matching his individual output (I’m serious when I say that he’s a Big Deal). Big freshman midfielder Jesse King is the team’s second-leading scorer with a mere 16 points, two-thirds of them coming on goals. Fellow midfielder Dominique Alexander has eight goals and five assists, while attack Nick Liddil has five goals and eight assists.

Sophomore attackman Tyler Frederick – a product of the McDonogh School in Maryland – seems to be the closest thing the Buckeyes have to a quarterback at X, with 10 assists and three goals.

So far this season, if you stop Schuss, there’s a good chance you’re holding down Ohio State’s scoring. unfortunately, Michigan has had trouble preventing virtuoso performances, for example allowing Harvard’s Jeff Cohen to score seven goals himself just a couple weeks ago.

Defense

As mentioned above, the Ohio State defense is one of the country’s best. Part of that is on the basis of a strong ride (a terrifying proposition against this Michigan team), and part is simply excellent play in the 6-v-6.

Greg Dutton is OSU’s primary goalie between the pipes, and despite a relatively pedestrian ,577 save percentage, he allows only 7.28 goals per game. That means the defense in front of him is allowing opponents to get off very few shots, and many of those that they do manage to launch aren’t on cage.

The Buckeyes force a fair number of turnovers – impressive given their slow pace of play. Senior Keenan Ochwat leads the way in that regard, with 21 caused on the year. His linemate Joe Bonnani is second on the squad with 14, and sophomore Dominic Imbordino rounds out the unit with 11. Sophomore Darius Bowling has picked up plenty of ground balls, so I’m going to go ahead and assume that he’s the starting LSM (unless it’s Imbordino). The OSU roster does not specify.

Midfielder Kevin Mack has a GB-to-shot ratio that indicates he’s one of the starting short stick defenders, but the stats are muddled enough as to make it unclear who the other is.

Special Teams

Faceoffs have not been a strength for Ohio State. It’s the one area of the game that’s a complete wildcard, and potentially exploitable by Michigan. If Ohio State doesn’t possess, they can’t stall and choke the life out of the game with the slimmest of leads. Of course, Michigan’s faceoffs have been far from excellent this year, as well, so it’s far from a guarantee that they’ll be able to take advantage.

The Ohio State clear is one of the best in the country, and Michigan’s ride is… one of the best in the country (the only thing that the Wolverines are truly good at is riding, to be honest). Michigan’s unconventional approach to the riding game has thrown some teams off, but Ohio State recently faced another team that makes heavy use of the 10-man in Bellarmine, and had little trouble in going 24-for-28. On the other side of the transition game, Michigan has been very poor clearing the ball themselves this year, and although many of the turnovers have been unforced, Ohio State should be able to take advantage.

Neither team has been particularly penalty-prone this year, but Michigan’s man-down defense is awful, allowing goals on 50% of opposing EMOs. Ohio State’s converting opportunities at a better rate than their opposition, so staying out of the box will be a key for Michigan.

Big Picture

At this point in the year, it’s clear that Michigan will be a favorite against no team (Wagner’s not on the schedule, right?). Given that Ohio State is a pretty good one, the expectations aren’t particularly high for Michigan in this game.

With low expectations, there’s not a whole lot to lose for Michigan in this game, but there’s actually quite a bit for them to gain. A win – in the team’s first nationally televised game – sets the table for a rivalry that extends from the football field to… also the football field, but in a different season.

Predictions

Ohio State is a heavy, heavy favorite in this game, and for good reason: they’re an upper-middle class team this year, and Michigan is among the nation’s worst. Can things change in the future? Sure, but that’s not particularly relevant to tomorrow’s game, either.

• The battle on faceoffs is relatively even, with Ohio State taking a slight edge in draws.
• The pace of play should be very slow. Although Michigan plays somewhat fast, it’s mostly because they turn the ball over a lot. In this game, when that happens, they won’t get it back for a long time.
• Emil Weiss will look like a superhero in this one. He’ll save over 60% of shots faced, and as usual, some of those will be excellent looks for the Buckeyes.
• Logan Schuss gets his production, but doesn’t receive the full Jeff Cohen experience.

Ohio State will build a small lead, but against their Wisconsin basketball-esque style of play, even a small lead seems insurmountable. As they have in recent weeks, Michigan shows signs of life, but never enough to seriously threaten a victory. Ohio State wins, 8-5.