UDM Improvement ’12: Faceoffs

The Titans need to perform better at the X to improve in 2012.

In many games last year, it seemed like a poor performance on faceoffs helped snatch defeat from the jaws of victory for the Titans (for example, they were more efficient than Marist, but a poor faceoff performance helped lead to a 1-goal loss). They’re already decent in many other phases of the game, with reasonable expectation for even more improvement going forward. An improvement on draws could be a major boon to Detroit, helping them take the next step as a program.

Past Performance

First, let’s look at how the Titans performed over the course of the year on an individual basis:

All told, the Titans were 148-362, for a success rate of .409 on the year. That simply will not do. Obviously, Davenport stands way out from the pack in terms of attempts, and MacLean and Corcoran form a second tier. Below them, it’s unlikely that many of these guys take a faceoff again in the foreseeable future. Obviously Gregson was removed from the team in the midst of last season, and Shoemaker is also graduating. Houtby led the team in GBs last year despite only facing off thrice and winning zero (with 97 – the next closest Titan had 60, and Davenport was third with 53), so his skills are probably better-used on the wing.

Of course, there are mitigating factors – as there always are – to some of the struggles on faceoffs. Among those is the competition faced. Here are the faceoff specialists that Detroit faced this year, along with their season-long percentage, and their percentage against UDM:

There is obviously not enough data to drill down (are faceoff guys who get lots of their own GBs more or less likely to see success against the Titans? Which opponents gave Davenport and MacLean the most problems, respectively?), but for the current purpose, this information is plenty.

As you can see, Detroit’s struggles on faceoffs were not a product of simply playing many of the nation’s best. On the contrary, nearly every opponent (save backups from Bellarmine, Mercer, and Marist, along with starters from Jacksonville and Canisius) outperformed their season success rate – whether good or bad – when they played UDM.

Does It Get Better?

So, is there a light at the end of the tunnel? There are four plausible ways for the Titans to improve on draws:

1. One of the faceoff men from last year shows improvement going into 2012. Davenport and MacLean are the only guys I’m really considering here.
2. A new recruit comes in and wins the job, performing better as a freshman than either Davenport or MacLean did last year.
3. Someone already on the roster who did not take faceoffs last year emerges to have great success.
4. Wing play is vastly improved from last year.

Tackling those in reverse order: By virtue of having more experience on the team (remember, the Titans are only losing two seniors, one of whom was removed from the roster mid-season), wing play will likely get better to some degree. I’m dismissing number three on its face: draws were so bad for UDM last year, that any reasonable option got his chance.

That leaves #2 and #1. Coach Holtz singled out only one incoming recruit as a faceoff specialist. Here’s what he had to say about Baldwin, NY’s Tyler Harper:

“Tyler is a great two-sport athlete playing football and lacrosse. He will help us not only at the faceoff X, but he also has the ability to contribute on offense and defense.”

Harper is listed at 5-7, 150 (and that’s his roster listing, he’s probably even a bit smaller!), so he’s probably bound for face off/get off duty. He’s also super-tiny even as a faceoff guy, so unless he adds plenty of weight by next spring, he’ll be on the slight side. Unless he’s a prodigy – which for all I know is possible – I wouldn’t count on him as a huge upgrade.

That leaves #1 as out most likely avenue of improvement. This is important enough to get…

Its Own Heading

So, how much can we expect a faceoff man to improve over the course of his career? Well, fortunately, I’ve already crunched the numbers (it’s almost like I planned ahead, right), and unfortunately it seems there’s no clear trend in players improving from year-to-year. In fact, it seems that upperclassmen actually get worse, and the only real improvement happens between freshman and sophomore years.

Unfortunately, Detroit’s main faceoff specialists last year were sophomores, and if the trend holds (I’m actually of the opinion that it’s primarily due to random chance, rather than being statistically significant), they could get even worse going forward. Joe MacLean was the lone freshman on last year’s faceoff platoon, and therefore, per the stats, the only one from whom improvement is actually “expected.”

However, since Brandon Davenport so ferociously bucked the trend going from freshman to sophomore (my chart shows that the aggregate improves by 3.2%, whereas Davenport’s success rate declined by 5.9%), there’s a chance he just happened to have a rough sophomore campaign – be it due to competition, wing play, increased pressure from expectations, etc. – and will rebound to a more reasonable number going forward.

In Conclusion

The Titans have a few avenues by which they could see some improvement, and I’m willing to bet that at least two of them will indeed get better in 2012 (wing play, and the play of Brandon Davenport). The other two are wildcards, but considering that they can only make things better, not any worse – whereas Davenport or MacLean could theoretically perform worse, and wing play could theoretically get worse, any new person on faceoffs who doesn’t get it done will quickly see the bench – I predict the Titans will near 50% at the faceoff X next season, and will be much better in the overall possession game as a result.