See Part 1 and Part 2 for breakdowns of past games between these teams and how they’ve fared against the competition so far this season.
Offense
Trevor Yealy Scores A Lot. Photo From Official Site
For the past three seasons, Michigan’s offense has started (and often ended) through Trevor Yealy. He’s likely to be a 4-time All-American following this year… and is just third on the team in points. By piling up assists – Yealy only has 10 in four years – Chad Carroll and Thomas Paras are actually outscoring one of the most dangerous finishers in the club game. Midfielders Joey Hrusovsky and Alex Vasileff are also threats to shoot or pass, each with just under 30 points on the year.
The Spartans’ top four scorers are identical to last year’s: Patrick Nemes, Michael Bailey, Connor Bush, and Dan Witt, in that order. All four attackmen have upped their production this year, with Nemes at an even 4 PPG (evenly split between goals and assists), Bailey just over 3 PPG (slight emphasis on goal-scoring), and the seniors of the bunch, Bush and Witt, right around 2.5, with Witt almost exclusively a finisher while Bush is the only Spartan with more assists than goals. That quartet is joined by another 2+ PPG player in sophomore middie Patrick Green, who has 16 goals and 7 assists on the year.
Defense
State has a few very good defensive players, led by senior longpoles Michael Schneider and Brendan Hunt. Both were All-Conference last season. Redshirt sophomore Wes Binder and senior LSM Ben Daiek are near the top of the team’s chart in ground balls.
As for Michigan, I probably don’t need to introduce 2-time 1st-Team All-American Harrison Freid. The guy I might need to introduce is junior Austin Swaney, who has been even more impressive than Freid a few times this year(!!!). Sophomore JD Johnson is the third starter on a ludicrously good defensive unit that is capped off by LSM Matt Asperheim, who is also a threat offensively.
Goalie
Michigan is bound to switch keepers at halftime, as they have in every game this year (regardless of game situation). Mark Stone is the starter, and probably a little more gifted in terms of reflexes and keeping the ball out of the net. Andrew Fowler will come on at halftime, and what he gives up in pure goal-stopping – which may not be much, as he’s outplayed Stone a few times lately in my inexpert estimation – he makes up for with great athleticism in the clear/ride game. Combined, Michigan’s goalies have given up 10 goals only once – in the Arizona State game.
State has also played multiple goalies this year, but their situation is very different: senior Smith Atwood (epic lax name) is The Guy. He’s allowing just under 10 goals per game (remember, Michigan’s goalies have only allowed double-digits once once), but has made at least his share of great saves. I’ve only seen a couple State games this year, but one area of his game that seemed highly exploitable was his clearing – he threw away several passes in the UCSB game. Against the best-riding team in the world of club lacrosse, that could be a huge liability.
Faceoffs
I think Michigan State might input their faceoff stats incorrectly on the MCLA website (wins-losses instead of wins-attempts), so I’m operating on that assumption when writing this. The Spartans’ leading faceoff guy, Scott Wisniewski, is pretty bad. I saw him get completely abused by UCSB’s FOGO, and then two nights later saw that particular Gaucho look like a high school player against Michigan’s specialist. Yeah, yeah, I only have 2 games’ worth of evidence about the guy, but… the stats don’t lie.
Michigan’s faceoff job was up in the air to start the year, but Brian Greiner is now #1 with a bullet. Though Michigan had been winning 70+% of faceoffs over the past few years, it was expected they’d be on the other side of such a beating in 2011. Greiner has stepped up to win 60% of faceoffs, and instead of being a liability, the position has been neutral-or-better for the Wolverines in nearly every game this season.
What Does It All Mean?
For whatever reason, I just don’t feel like this Michigan State team is as good as last year’s. They have more senior leaders, the same guys are doing the scoring (but more of it), and they’re climbing to new heights in the poll, but… I dunno. Part of it might be the classic Sparty Syndrome, wherein they give up huge leads and either lose games (Colorado State) or almost do (Arizona State) despite big fourth quarter leads. Part of it might just be my admitted bias. Part of it might be graduating the best goalie in the MCLA from last year’s squad.
Either way, this is by far the best Michigan team I’ve seen in three years, faceoffs notwithstanding. From what I’ve seen out of each team, I think Michigan has improved more over the past year. I still wouldn’t be surprised to see State split the season series, but my gut tells me this one ends 15-9 Wolverines.