Michigan Fall Ball Preview: St. Joseph’s

Michigan v. St. Joseph’s

Fear the Hawk

Saturday, October 8th, 9:30 AM
Ridley High School
Folsom, PA

Now that their first competition as a varsity program is out of the way, Michigan will try to build on what they accomplished last weekend when they take on two D-1 programs in the span of three hours this Saturday. First up, St. Joseph’s.

Tempo-Free

The Hawks were one of D-1’s worst programs last year, finishing 0-12. I’m guessing their tempo-free stats will bear that out. From their official stats last season:

So, uh, they were awful. The Hawks got dominated in possession (bottom four in the country in possession%), and had the worst offensive efficiency in the country to go along with the fourth-worst defensive efficiency. Wagner was the only team last year (aside from those in their first or last year of existence) that came close to SJU’s level of futility all-around.

Every. Single. Team. on the schedule put up at least double digits, and St. Joseph’s didn’t hit the 10-goal mark a single time. This was a really, really bad team. That is why their coach got fired.

Unfortunately, since their coach got fired, we don’t know what to expect out of the Hawks this season. They could get better, stagnate, or (gulp) even get worse under new leadership. When in doubt, guess “incremental improvement,” so that’s what I’m projecting.

Schedule

I’ve already ripped St. Joseph’s pretty hard, so it’s only fair to give credit where it’s due: they played a pretty brutal schedule. According to LaxPower, it was the nation’s 14th-toughest, and nobody else in the bottom 15 teams in the nation (LaxPower agrees with the tempo-free numbers that say SJU was the fourth-worst team in the country) played a top-25 schedule in terms of difficulty.

Maryland, Hofstra, UMass, Delaware, and Penn isn’t a murderer’s row, per se, but for a team that seems to really struggle in all phases of the game, it’s no walk in the park, either. The lowest-rated team on the schedule (according to LaxPower) was Rutgers, who finished 38th in the computer rankings.

Personnel

Not a single Hawk made it onto the first- or second-team All-CAA lists, so this isn’t a program overrun with proven talent.

Faceoffs – Four different members of the St. Joe’s team took double-digit faceoffs last year. Chris Jenkins, now a senior, took the most, winning .433 of his draws. Keith Preston is the only departed player who had a reasonable role, but he only only 5 of 18 draws.

Scoring Threats – This should come as no surprise given the team’s offensive inability last season, but only one member of the squad scored double-digit goals last year. Kyle Williams, now a junior attackman, put in 17 goals, and added nine assists. Only two other Hawks scored double-digit points, as departed seniors Scott Cullinan and Matt Dougherty tied for second on the team with 10 points. This was not a good offensive squad. A pair of juniors, attack Kyle Mahoney and midfielder Steve Dunn, were next on the list with nine and seven total points, respectively, and will probably be expected to increase production this year.

Defensive Field Players – D-pole Bill Bonner led non-FOGO field players in ground balls with a grand total of 20, tied with goalkeeper Chris Moffa. Justin Rogers was next on the list with 15, and the senior is listed as a defense/midfielder by the Saint Joseph’s roster. The next two players on the ledger (that aren’t obvious offensive players, at least), were Pat Harner and Keith Belson, but neither is with Saint Joseph’s anymore.

Goalies – Chris Moffa and Griffin Ferrigan (name of the year candidate) spit time in net almost down the middle, both playing in 10 games and Moffa getting slightly more playing time. Ferrigan had the better save percentage (.486 to .443), but a worse goals against average, meaning he faced many more shots. Moffa is a junior and Ferrigan a senior, so I expect Ferrigan to be rewarded for his better performances with a slightly bigger role this year.

The Lowdown

In an earlier preview, I said Providence was a bad team last year. St. Joseph’s was way worse. They also didn’t have the extreme youth in 2011 that Providence was contending with, so there’s not as much of an excuse for their horrendous play. That is why coaches get fired.

As mentioned above, though, the new coach is a wildcard. Taylor Wray leaves Lehigh, where he spent four years as the top assistant to Kevin Cassese (incidentally, Saint Joseph’s was a 7-16 victim of Lehigh’s in 2011). The situation that Wray is stepping into isn’t going to be fixed overnight, and I see potential for a solid Michigan victory, especially with a healthier roster.

Trevor Yealy should lead all scorers, and Emil Weiss will be more-than-solid in the net again. If Brian Greiner returns fully healthy, he should dominate the faceoffs (but Alex Marcus and Andrew Hayden should get a couple attempts as well). Saint Joseph’s doesn’t look completely clueless under their new head coach, but they don’t look great, either. Assuming a full-time scrimmage, I’ll guess 14-7, Michigan. All predictions thrown out if the format is irregular, of course.