MCLA Bracketology 4-20-11

Here is the latest Prodigy poll (relevant teams only), with change from last week noted:

1. Michigan
2. Colorado State
3. Arizona State
4. Chapman +1
5. BYU -1
6. Michigan State
7. Boston College
8. Colorado
9. Texas
10. Florida State
11. Cal Poly
12. Utah
13. UC-Santa Barbara +1
14. Oregon -1
15. Virginia Tech +3
16. Central Florida +3

Dropping down, but likely to get automatic bids are Illinois (GRLC auto, was 16 now 20) and Minnesota-Duluth (UMLL auto, was 17 now 23). A pair of SELC teams made big jumps as Simon Fraser joined Illinois and Duluth in taking nosedives.

I had several teams “on the bubble” in last week’s bracketology post, and here’s what they’ve done on the field (and in the polls) since then:

• Boston College (PCLL auto) – Beat Northeastern and Rhode Island, didn’t move in the polls.
• Texas (LSA auto) – DNP, didn’t move in the polls.
• Florida State (SELC auto) – Beat Florida 22-11, didn’t move in the polls.
• Cal Poly (WCLL auto) – Beat Stanford 12-5, didn’t move in the polls.
• Oregon (PNCLL auto) – Beat Oregon State 13-7, moved down 1 spot in the polls.
• Illinois (GRLC auto) – Lost to Lindenwood, dropped 4 spots in the polls.
• Minnesota-Duluth (UMLL auto) – Lost to Minnesota 7-8, beat Sonoma State 8-2, dropped 6 spots in the polls.
• Colorado – lost 8-9 to Colorado State, did not move in polls.
• Utah – beat Boise State 14-2, did not move in polls.
• UC Santa Barbara – DNP, moved up 1 spot in polls (ahead of a team that played and won, mind you).
• Simon Fraser – Lost to Arizona State 6-16 and Arizona 10-11, dropped 5 spots in the polls.
• Virginia Tech – Beat East Carolina 20-5, moved up 3 spots in the polls.
• Central Florida – DNP, moved up 3 spots in the polls.
• Arizona – Beat Simon Fraser 11-10, moved up 3 spots in the polls.
• Stanford – Lost to Cal Poly 5-12, moved down 1 spot in the polls.

There are some deeper implications here. With Oregon moving down a spot in the poll, and Illinois and Minnesota-Duluth doing whatever they did, the PNCLL, GRLC, and UMLL are rock-solid locks to be 1-bid leagues, no matter who wins them.

The LSA and PCLL are close, as Texas’s only shot at a “good loss” in their conference tournament, Texas State, lost in the first round. Losing to the likes of North Texas (semifinals) or Texas A&M/SMU would probably still doom an at-large bid. Either way, Texas is likely to win it. Same story with Boston College, but that still have regular-season games left. A loss to Colorado (which is the most likely outcome) could end their hopes at an at-large bid if they don’t win the PCLL. Either way, they’re likely to win the league.

In the WCLL and SELC, I think Cal Poly and Florida State have probably sealed up bids, no matter who wins their league. At the end of the day, we have a bracket that ends up looking a lot like last week’s:

Projected 2011 MCLA Tournament Bracket

I switched Chapman and BYU’s seeds to avoid first-round conference matchups (and outside of that, their seeds don’t matter since they’re favored to meet each other in the next round either way).

Here are some of this week’s games that could impact the bracket in a big way:

• Colorado @ Boston College (Friday 7PM) – Somebody’s claim on an at-large slot should get a lot shakier.
• Colorado State @ Utah (Friday 7PM) – Utah could blow up the rankings with a win, or be knocked out of at-large contention with a loss (pending the Holy War the following weekend)
• Sonoma State @ Cal Poly (Saturday 1PM) – Another regular-season loss for Cal Poly would cement the WCLL as a 1-bid league.
• Colorado State @ BYU (Saturday 7PM) – The top slot in the RMLC is up for grabs.
• UCSB @ Chapman (Saturday 7PM) – The Panthers could knock the Gauchos out of at-large consideration, or be knocked way down the seeding totem pole themselves.

There’s still a lot of lacrosse to be played, but as each week goes on, we get a clearer picture of what the tournament field will look like. Once conference tournaments truly get under way the following weekend, things should get pretty fun.