I posted MCLA Bracketology features in the diaries of mgoblog last year, and it’s about time to get back into the game, even though collegelax has someone doing a similar feature this year.
For a bit on the methodology, check out this post. The Top 17 teams in the Prodigy Poll (officially used as a tournament selection tool) are as follows:
- Michigan
- Colorado State
- Arizona State
- BYU
- Chapman
- Michigan State
- Boston College
- Colorado
- Texas
- Florida State
- Cal Poly
- Utah
- Oregon
- UC Santa Barbara
- Simon Fraser
- Illinois
- Minnesota-Duluth
Since there is still a lot of lacrosse to be played, I’ll have to project a bit, but I’m going to assume that higher-ranked teams win the remaining matchups this season. That gives us the following autobids:
- Michigan (CCLA)
- Colorado State (RMLC)
- Arizona State (SLC)
- Boston College (PCLL)
- Texas (LSA)
- Florida State (SELC)
- Cal Poly (WCLL)
- Oregon (PNCLL)
- Illinois (GRLC)
- Minnesota-Duluth (UMLL)
Before going any further, I’ll point out that the top 3 teams are mortal locks to make the tournament, regardless of what happens for the rest of the year. The bottom three teams must win their conference tournaments, because they play in 1-bid leagues (more on Oregon and Simon Fraser in a moment). Depending on results for the rest of the year, the other teams are on the bubble if they don’t win conference tourneys.
- Boston College has 4 regular-season games left (including one against Colorado). If they lose 3 of those games – unlikely though that may be – they’ll have to win the PCLL Tournament.
- Texas has an undefeated record, but exactly 1 win of note (over Florida State). They’re onto their conference tournament now, and if they lose without making the final – which would be a very bad loss, and again, an unlikely occurrence – they might sweat out their selection.
- Florida State, despite being ranked behind Texas and with a head-to-head loss to the Horns, is probably the closest bet to a “sure thing” out of this group. One more win (they have a regular-season game and there are 3 rounds of conference playoffs) and they’re safe.
- Cal Poly is pretty safe as well, but Stanford could really make a move by winning the regular season battle and conference tournament matchup. More on this in a moment.
Projecting results for the rest of the year, the teams listed above would ultimately make the tournament, and the teams vying against them are likely to miss it. That leaves us with the following teams vying for at-large bids:
- #4 BYU (RMLC) – Lock
- #5 Chapman (SLC) – Lock
- #6 Michigan State (CCLA) – Lock
- #8 Colorado (RMLC) – Near-lock
- #12 Utah (RMLC) – Bubble
- #14 UC Santa Barbara (SLC) – Bubble
- #15 Simon Fraser (PNCLL) – Likely out
- #18 Virginia Tech (SELC) – Likely out
- #19 Central Florida (SELC) – Likely out
- #20 Clemson (SELC) – Likely out
- #21 Arizona (SLC) – Likely out
- #24 Stanford (WCLL) – Likely out
With 3 of the 6 at-large spots spoken for (and Colorado likely to lock one up by winning at least 2 of their next 4 games), that means there are 2 spots left. Utah and UCSB look like the most likely contenders, with Simon Fraser almost certain NOT to win a spot. That means it’s up to the SELC teams or Stanford to step up and steal a spot. However, as of today, your tournament bracket looks like this:
Projected 2011 MCLA Tournament Bracket
You’ll note that some seed have been shuffled from the poll (most notably Texas and Florida State) to adhere a bit more to who has earned their seed. In addition, I assumed Colorado (currently #8) would lose to Boston College (#7) based on ranking, though that may not be the most likely outcome of that game. I also didn’t switch any seeds to avoid regular season rematches (BYU and Utah is a conference game, Michigan State and UCSB played in the regular season), though the committee may do that with a couple easy tweaks.
With a few more weeks of lacrosse to be played, everything is certain to change.
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