Despite a 2-7 record, he Titans have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament should they win the MAAC. The next phase in that plan (with many phases, including a conference tournament, yet to come) is implemented tomorrow afternoon, as they try to move to 2-0 in the conference by knocking off Jacksonville on the road.
Jacksonville
Saturday, 1PM. Jacksonville, FL
Record: 3-5 (1-0 MAAC)
Rankings: 45 (Computer).
Common Opponents: Mercer (W 24-4), Robert Morris (L, 7-11), Mount St. Mary’s (L, 9-16).
Schedule
Jacksonville and Detroit have had pretty similar seasons so far: wins over hapless first-year program Mercer, a MAAC-opening victory, and a whole lot of bad other than that. The Dolphins(!) have one more win, but they also have a slightly easier strength of schedule – and their losses have been mostly non-competitive whereas UDM has a pair of 1-goal losses, and has only been run off the field by top-25 Delaware and Maryland.
The teams have plenty of opposition in common, as the 3 teams that both have played account for at least a third of each squad’s schedule-to-date. Comparative performances in handy chart form:
| Opponent | Detroit | Jacksonville |
|---|---|---|
| Mercer | W 19-3 | W 24-4 |
| Eff. Margin | +.361 | +.380 |
| Robert Morris | L 13-14 OT | L 7-11 |
| Eff. Margin | -.050 | -.098 |
| Mount St. Mary’s | L 8-12 | L 9-16 |
| Eff. Margin | -.014 | -.120 |
So, in the game over Mercer (in which I imagine both teams emptied their benches), the Dolphins were more efficient than UDM, but the Titans fared far better against both of the other common opponents, even in losses.
Personnel
Since the faceoff X has played a big role in UDM’s losses to this point in the season, we’ll start there. Hapless Mercer (who Detroit got the benefit of facing off against as well, to be fair) and Rutgers are realllly propping up Jacksonville’s stats, but even outside of those games, they’re still not as dire as the Titans. This should still be a fairly even battle, and if UDM can win it, they’ll have a great chance to win the game.
Moving to the offense, sophomore midfielder Cameron Mann is the #1 threat, with 12 goals to his name, along with 7 assists to lead the team in scoring. Junior attack MAtt Gurowski is tied atop the leaderboard with Mann, but he’s more skewed toward distributing, with 14 of those points coming on assists. The top two goal-scorers on the team are senior midfielder Bobby Stockton with 15 and sophomore attack TJ Kenary with 14, though they’ve only added 1 and 3 assists apiece, respectively.
Defensively, Corey Lovrich has started every game he’s played, but he’s missed 2 contests for the Dolphins. Their website is busted, so I can’t see individual game stats to know if he’s been out with injury lately. A pair of juniors have started every game on defense for JU in Jake Ziegler and Tanner Gard. Ziegler is #1 on the team among non-faceoff guys in GBs with 23 on the year.
In goal, JU has played four different players, but make no mistake, Peter DeLuca is The Guy. He has started all 8 games, and played the vast majority of the team’s minutes in net. He has saved .520 of shots on goal, and has allowed a shade under 12 goals a game.
Predictions
On paper, this is a ridiculously even matchup. Of course, as the old saying goes, games aren’t played on paper, and this particular game will be played on Jacksonville’s home turf. That might swing the smart money in the Dolphins’ favor. OR, maybe Detroit’s talented offensive players like Shayne Adams, Scott Harris, et al will be able to be the difference-makers against a team that hasn’t been very efficient. In this game more than any other, it makes sense to leave Brandon Davenport in the game, even if he’s not winning faceoffs, because the other options are certainly not an improvement. Overall, I think Detroit is able to steal a tossup on the road, 11-9, thanks to their ability to play efficiently on both ends of the field.